Update Speculation thread

I stand by my Wed. the 16th - and December updates have been all before christmas, with Dec. 9, Dec. 18, 20, and 21.

 

Wenesday is the 16th

 

A winter update after Christmas would be a first.

 

I don't remember if the beamng team is on vacation between christmas and new year's eve but it would be logic. So I think we can forget this week

 

Nope it will come 80% this week

 

im betting on this week as well. where's the steamdb guy to give us some hope (or not)?

 

But the best way to find out is , when a dev will give us a hint tho

 

It will have to come before the 22nd or it will be in 2021

 

Since the teaser was on a thursday, using wishful logical thinking they'll release it before this upcoming tuesday. The prerunner looks ready, but it is also possible they just wanted to tease so they did it on a thursday.

 

Judging by steamdb updates, and past update patterns, it is going to come most likely next week, but steamdb is NOT a source, as said here in the first post on the thread.

 

Here are my odds based on my trend study. (Data entry and analysis is my thing...)
Obviously these aren't going to be all adding up to 100%

There's a 5% chance it comes today. (in 5 out of the 100 plausible scenarios)
There's an effective 0% chance for tomorrow. (meaning it's stupid to try to predict it happening. If it happens, it will be a complete anomaly)
Based on historic data on December and General updates, I came up with (see my earlier posts)
WHS (day)
14-16 (date) - MTW.
So that gives us an effective 100% chance for next week. Since there is a chance it's later, I'm dropping it down to 95% next week. 1 out of 20 times does it come later.
Monday: 0% chance. Denied by devs.
Tuesday: 40% chance. It also makes sense, only with giving the devs monday to write the devblog or finalize bugfixes.
Wednesday: 80% chance. Not only does it still make sense, but it also matches up with the average update releases.
Thursday: 50% chance. Not likely, since there's likely going to be a large amount that needs to be done to push out 0.21.1 (inevitably)
Friday: 30% chance. Again, unlikely. That only gives them saturday to fix/address issues.
Saturday: 20% chance. While not uncommon, it doesn't make much sense, especially with the obvious amount of effort going into the update.

As for content, the Soliad Wendover is unlikely.

 

Do I need to say more? This is perfect math(ing)!

 

We need the final countdown!

 

We need to be patient

 

Its the weekend, its likely not dropping today at all. I expect it will be out either Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday if it is coming out next week.

 

#UpdateTuesday when?

 

Definitely not on Tuesday

 

I don't see why not

 

What are we expecting in this update?

 

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