Update Speculation thread

That's my prediction too.
Also, yeah, we've noticed the differences a long time ago!!

 

Yes, that has been solved right after that speculation by devs to not expect bolide in this update.

 

I think they'll release it on a Friday and since more people have the chance to play on weekends more bugs are found. and then on Monday they can start fixing them and push patches as they fix them.

 

I believe it was the last update even, not this one

 

Im assuming a tuesday or wednesday release, mondays aint got time and thursday-friday means that if theres critical bugs youre working weekend no doubt.

 

I'm optimistic for a Friday release but it seems unlikely.

 

This is what everyone needs to keep in mind, tdev stated that they are focusing on delivering less buggy updates, so there isn't as much necessity to work on hotfixes as soon as the update launches, so it can be any day of the week that we can expect this update

 

If it's this week it'd be today in all honesty. They basically never release updates on Fridays.

 

Neither will any company in their right mind do major changes or updates on a friday, unless they for some reason will plan on working the weekend.
No matter how great the update is, there can always be something unexpected that needs urgent fixing. Stuff like that cannot wait till monday.

 

There were past updates on a friday tho

 

There have been major updates on Thursdays before, with the first hotfix usually on a Friday and later ones the following week. It is not out of the question whatsoever.

 

We’ve been grasping at straws for a month

 

I believe we could get the update tomorrow. Updating on black Friday could be good for business. Plus, 2 weeks of creator program having the update and them advertising with the remastered pessima are both signs the update could be soon.

 

Hi everyone, here's a few thoughts on when this highly anticipated update is gonna drop.

Reasons to be excited:

1. It's currently 148 days since the last update, which is the longest since 0.21>0.22 (131 days) and 0.15>0.16 (134 days)
2. For every day that elapses we are one day closer to the update!
3. The longer it takes means the more super mega awesome the update will be

Reasons we might need to stay patient a bit longer:

1. The longer it takes might just mean the more bugs they are having to fix
2. November updates are rare, there has only been one in the last 6 years (0.11)
3. Most of the big winter updates including the last 3 have happened in December
0.21 (15-Dec-20)
0.18 (09-Dec-19)
0.15 (20-Dec-18)
0.8 (21-Dec-16)

As for days of the week it's been 832 days since the last major update on a Friday. However, almost a third of all major updates since 0.6 have been on Fridays. Monday is the least likely day of the week for updates at 1/10, while Tuesday and Wednesday are both 1/5. The last 4 major updates have all been on different days of the week.

Conclusions:

The most likely day for an update appears to be a Tuesday or Wednesday which I'd rate at around 25% chance each.
The chances of an update this month seem low going by the dates of previous updates and a December update looks more likely.

Estimated odds:

Today or tomorrow: 5%
Week beginning 29th November: 20%
Week beginning 6th December: 25%
Week beginning 13th December: 25%
Week beginning 20th December: 25%

 

I need someone like you in my life!...

 

Nice dataset but i think your conclusions are premature. The update releasing is not a random occurrence. You approach to guessing the date should be qualitative not quantitative

 

We would make a nice collection of tin-foil hats.

 

I really, really, really regret turning on email notifications when I first posted in this thread. Y’all speculate on nothing, which is I guess the definition of speculation. Anyone think that a prop of Tdev’s toilet will be in this update?

 

So you get a few hundred emails a dayXD

 

are you single