I doubt it's likely to be released so much as having a real-life racetrack can allow them to benchmark cars - not only compare them to how representative cars handle in other games, but also how representative cars handle in real life. I'd be unsuprised if there are racetracks local to certain developers in some versions so that they can benchmark a vehicle in game, and then repeat that in real life.
Honestly COTA is probably a hobby project of one of the dev's like SSRB was for Nadeox1 and wasn't intended to be publicly released in any form in-game. Someone probably just wanted to try out map-making instead of whatever role they usually had and chose COTA to recreate.
It had the official logo on the map screen because it's installed in the game directory rather than as a mod, which makes distributing the test build of the game easier.
I'm thinking the update is coming next week. The minivan looks almost ready, as we've seen the Jbeam as well as a gambler configuration, meaning that the production variants are likely already finalized or are in the final stages of development. In addition to that, we have already seen a few gambler configurations like the 6x4 bolide, porta-pigeon, and big wheel covet thingy. So, content wise, it seems like everything is for the most part ready, however we haven't heard much in terms of features. Now of course tire heat simulation has been speculated for awhile now, but I don't think it fits in with an update like this one. You'd think they'd save tire thermals for a drift or drag oriented update in 0.30-0.32 rather than one focused on goofy car modifications and a bland mid 2000s minivan.
I think we have to wait at least one week into July as the creator programme hasn’t been updated yet and as some people already pointed out, the devs would risk breaking the mods which are made for the gambler contest. That’s why I don’t think the update will release before the end of the gambler contest
I don't think they would be delaying big core physics updates like a tyre model overhaul to have it coincide with any specific content update. Something like that affects all vehicles in the game, no matter how bland or low end it might be.
Well, maybe it's too late to speculate on this, since it's been a few days since the teaser came out, but the minivan gives me strong late 90s/early 2000s vibes.
I would say reasonably probably mid or early July as it would be close to the three month schedule and judging by what we have seen, it’s hopefully not multiple months out.